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- Title
Polycyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbons in China: Will Decoupling of Their Emissions and Socioeconomic Growth Emerge?
- Authors
Cao, Xianghui; Huo, Shouliang; Zhang, Hanxiao; Zhao, Xiaoli; Guo, Wei; He, Zhuoshi; Ma, Chunzi; Zheng, Jiaqi; Song, Shuai
- Abstract
Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) are emitted into the environment by daily anthropogenic activities and they potentially threaten human health. Over the past 40 years, the coupling between PAHs emissions driven by energy transition and socioeconomic factors has yet to be determined, and future trends between the two parameters are unclear. In China, the emissions of PAHs increased from 1980 to 2016, and the average annual variation rate was 3.5%. After 2016, PAHs emissions were decoupled from socioeconomic growth. PAHs emissions exhibited a change from a developed region (eastern region) to an undeveloped region (central region and western region). The emissions of PAHs, if only driven by energy transition, will reach a peak in 2035 under the shared economic pathways (SSP1, SSP2, SSP4, and SSP5), which are defined to assess sustainable development. The emissions of PAHs will continuously increase by +9.8% under SSP3 during 2020–2050. Comparing these five socioeconomic pathways, SSP1 is the possible choice to achieve the sustainable decoupling of the emissions of PAHs and socioeconomic growth by transforming the drivers of economic growth, thereby optimizing the energy system and cultivating environmentally friendly behaviors. Plain Language Summary: The widespread occurrences of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in air, surface water, soils, sediments, and biota have been a concern because of their toxic effects on ecosystem and human health. Thus, it is imperative to alleviate emissions of PAHs to reduce human health risks. Significant knowledge gaps exist regarding whether China's PAHs emissions driven by energy transition will decline or continue to increase. In this study, we analyzed the dynamic changes in PAHs emissions from industrial coal combustion, domestic coal combustion, primary aluminum production, gasoline, diesel oil, straw burning, natural gas, and coking coal during the period 1980–2020. Then, a coupling model was employed to explore the coupling relationship between PAHs emissions and socioeconomic growth (gross domestic product and population). Finally, future PAHs emissions were predicted using five shared socioeconomic scenarios (SSP1, SSP2, SSP3, SSP4, and SSP5) during the period 2020–2050. The emissions of PAHs, if only driven by energy transition, will reach a peak in 2035 under the shared economic pathways (SSP1, SSP2, SSP4, and SSP5), which are defined to assess sustainable development. The results will provide a solid basis for policymakers to enact mitigation strategies of PAHs emissions in China. Key Points: Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) emissions exhibited a change from a developed region to an undeveloped regionThe emissions of PAHs driven by energy transition will reach a peak in 2035 under the shared economic pathwaysSSP1 is the possible choice to achieve the sustainable decoupling of the emissions of PAHs and socioeconomic growth
- Subjects
CHINA; POLYCYCLIC aromatic hydrocarbons; COKING coal; COAL combustion; DIESEL fuels; GROSS domestic product; ECOSYSTEM health
- Publication
Earth's Future, 2022, Vol 10, Issue 1, p1
- ISSN
2328-4277
- Publication type
Article
- DOI
10.1029/2021EF002360