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- Title
Notes on Computational Uncertainties in Probabilistic Risk/Safety Assessment.
- Authors
Rauzy, Antoine
- Abstract
In this article, we study computational uncertainties in probabilistic risk/safety assessment resulting from the computational complexity of calculations of risk indicators. We argue that the risk analyst faces the fundamental epistemic and aleatory uncertainties of risk assessment with a bounded calculation capacity, and that this bounded capacity over-determines both the design of models and the decisions that can be made from models. We sketch a taxonomy of modelling technologies and recall the main computational complexity results. Then, based on a review of state of the art assessment algorithms for fault trees and event trees, we make some methodological proposals aiming at drawing conceptual and practical consequences of bounded calculability.
- Subjects
COMPUTATIONAL complexity; RISK assessment -- Mathematical models; FAULT trees (Reliability engineering); PROBABILITY theory; TECHNOLOGY; COMPUTER algorithms; MATHEMATICAL models
- Publication
Entropy, 2018, Vol 20, Issue 3, p162
- ISSN
1099-4300
- Publication type
Article
- DOI
10.3390/e20030162