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- Title
Looking for a Needle in a Haystack: Revisiting the Cross-country Causes of the 2008-9 Crisis by Bayesian Model Averaging.
- Authors
Ho, Tai‐kuang
- Abstract
In this paper we explore the cross-country variation in the output impact of the global financial crisis in 2008-9. We use the extensive dataset of Rose and Spiegel but control for the problems of model uncertainty and outliers by using a variety of Bayesian model averaging techniques. We find first that cross-country differences in crisis intensity can be explained by macroeconomic vulnerabilities. Second, ignoring model uncertainty can lead to incorrect inferences. Third, international trade linkages do matter.
- Subjects
BAYESIAN analysis; GLOBALIZATION; FOREIGN trade regulation; FOREIGN exchange; TREATY ports (East Asia)
- Publication
Economica, 2015, Vol 82, Issue 328, p813
- ISSN
0013-0427
- Publication type
Article
- DOI
10.1111/ecca.12125