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- Title
Synthetic fat from petroleum as a resilient food for global catastrophes: Preliminary techno-economic assessment and technology roadmap.
- Authors
García Martínez, Juan B.; Alvarado, Kyle A.; Denkenberger, David C.
- Abstract
• Synthetic fat has significant potential as resilient food for catastrophes. • Fat requirements of the global population could be fulfilled in 1–2 years. • 16–100% of the global fat requirements could be fulfilled by the end of the first year. • The product would be affordable at an expected retail cost between US$3–9/kg. • A roadmap for the development of synthetic fat as food for catastrophes is proposed. Human civilization's food production system is unprepared for global catastrophic risks (GCRs). catastrophes capable of abruptly transforming global climate such as supervolcanic eruption, asteroid/comet impact or nuclear winter, which could completely collapse the agricultural system. Responding by producing resilient foods requiring little to no sunlight is more cost effective than increasing food stockpiles, given the long duration of these scenarios (6−10 years). This preliminary techno-economic assessment uncovers significant potential for synthetic fat from petroleum as a resilient food source in the case of an abrupt sunlight reduction catastrophe, the most severe food shock scenario. To this end, the following are roughly quantified based on literature data: global production potential, capital and operating expenditures, material and energy requirements, ramp-up rates and retail prices. Potential resource bottlenecks are reviewed. Synthetic fat production capacity would be slower to ramp up compared to low-tech food production alternatives, but provides the fat macronutrient, largely absent from these. Using 24/7 construction of facilities, 16–100% of global fat requirements could be fulfilled at the end of the first year, potentially taking up to 2 years to fully meet the requirements. Significant uncertainty remains on several topics including production potential, capital expenditure, food safety, transferability of labor and equipment construction. A technology roadmap is proposed to address these concerns and develop the potential of synthetic fat as a catastrophe-resilient food.
- Subjects
TECHNOLOGY assessment; DISASTERS; INDUSTRIAL capacity; CAPITAL investments; FAT; PETROLEUM
- Publication
Chemical Engineering Research & Design: Transactions of the Institution of Chemical Engineers Part A, 2022, Vol 177, p255
- ISSN
0263-8762
- Publication type
Article
- DOI
10.1016/j.cherd.2021.10.017