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- Title
Modelado Espacial Actual y Futuro de la Idoneidad de Hábitat de Triatoma nitida Usinger en Latinoamérica.
- Authors
Guadalupe Torres-Delgado, María; Gerardo Véliz-Deras, Francisco; Javier Sánchez-Ramos, Francisco; Ruíz-Cancino, Enrique; Rafael Martínez-Sifuentes, Aldo; Nava-Camberos, Urbano; Ávila-Rodríguez, Verónica; Iván Ortega-Morales, Aldo
- Abstract
Triatoma nitida Usinger is a vector of the parasite Trypanosoma cruzi (Chagas) that causes Chagas disease, with great capacity to adapt to areas with geographical and climatic differences, affecting human populations. Considering the current problem of reemerging diseases, the present study was done with the objectives of delimiting the current distribution of T. nitida in Latin America, identifying the environmental variables with the greatest influence on the distribution of the species for the future climate (2041-2060 and 2081-2100) under two climate change scenarios SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5 (GtCO2), and to identify new invaded areas. A database with 55 geographic records was generated. Nineteen bioclimatic variables of the current period were downloaded with a resolution of 2.5 arc-min. For the future climate projection, the Beijing Climate Center-Climate System Model was considered for the years 2041-2060 and 2081-2100 under scenarios SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5. The model was calibrated by calculating the standardized coefficient of information from Akaike in R version 4.0.5 environment. The estimated area for Latin America was 2,089,284 km2, 17 countries and 13 states of Mexico were identified with potential areas for the presence of the species. The estimated area for future climates presented with a decreasing trend from 205,515 km2 for 2041-2060 and 857 km2 for 2081-2100, being the largest distribution in the states of Oaxaca and Chiapas in Mexico and the Central and South American countries Guatemala, El Salvador, Honduras, Nicaragua, Venezuela, and Brazil. It can be noted that with this model the trend of decreasing the distribution area of T. nitida represents a lower epidemiological risk for the human population. Although the trend of the results show this decrease, new geographical areas of invasion were found which have ideal climatic characteristics for the establishment of the vector, which could contribute to its adaptation, increase its vectorial capacity, as well as expand the distribution of Chagas disease to new areas of Latin America; therefore, it is important to consider areas with high habitat suitability.
- Subjects
CHAGAS' disease; CURRENT distribution; GEODATABASES; SPECIES distribution; TRYPANOSOMA cruzi; PHYSIOLOGICAL adaptation; PLANT invasions
- Publication
Southwestern Entomologist, 2022, Vol 47, Issue 1, p161
- ISSN
0147-1724
- Publication type
Article
- DOI
10.3958/059.047.0115