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- Title
THE GDP FAN CHARTS: AN EMPIRICAL EVALUATION.
- Authors
Down, Kevin
- Abstract
This paper evaluates the probability density forecasts reflected in the Bank of England's real GDP growth fan charts. Evaluation is carried out using tests that allow for data dependence and using two GDP growth estimates. Results suggest there are problems with the shorter horizon forecasts, but conclusions about the performance of longer-term forecasts depend to some extent on the GDP estimates used in the assessment.
- Subjects
UNITED Kingdom; ECONOMIC indicators; ECONOMIC forecasting; GROSS domestic product; EFFECT of inflation on the banking industry; BANK of England; GRAPHIC methods; ECONOMIC development; ECONOMIC activity
- Publication
National Institute Economic Review, 2008, Vol 203, p59
- ISSN
0027-9501
- Publication type
Article
- DOI
10.1177/00279501082030010801