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- Title
Development and Internal Validation of a Model for Predicting Overall Survival in Subjects with MAFLD: A Cohort Study.
- Authors
Bonfiglio, Caterina; Campanella, Angelo; Donghia, Rossella; Bianco, Antonella; Franco, Isabella; Curci, Ritanna; Bagnato, Claudia Beatrice; Tatoli, Rossella; Giannelli, Gianluigi; Cuccaro, Francesco
- Abstract
Background & Aims: Fatty liver disease with metabolic dysfunction (MAFLD) is a new concept proposed to replace the previous concept of Non-Alcoholic Hepatic Steatosis (NAFLD). We developed and internally validated a prognostic model to predict the likelihood of death in a cohort of subjects with MAFLD. Methods: Our work involved two steps: the first was the construction of a bootstrapped multivariable Cox model for mortality risk prognosis and the second was its validation. Results: The study cohort included 1506 subjects, of which 907 were used for internal validation. Discriminant measures for the final model were R2D 0.6845 and Harrell's C 0.8422 in the development and R2D 0.6930 and Harrell's C 0.8465 in the validation. We used the nine independent prognostic factors selected by the LASSO Cox procedure and fitted by the bootstrap Cox survival model, and observed β were: Gender 0.356 1.42 (p < 0.008), Age 0.146 (p < 0.001), Glycemia 0.004 (p < 0.002), Total Cholesterol −0.0040 (p < 0.009), Gamma Glutamyl Transpeptidase 0.009 (p < 0.001), SBP 0.009 (p < 0.036), DBP −0.016 (p < 0.041), ALP 0.008 (p < 0.071) and Widowhood 0.550 (p < 0.001). Conclusions: We produced and validated a model to estimate the probability of death in subjects with MAFLD. The instruments we used showed satisfactory predictive capabilities.
- Subjects
OVERALL survival; FATTY liver; COHORT analysis; MODEL validation; PROGNOSTIC models
- Publication
Journal of Clinical Medicine, 2024, Vol 13, Issue 4, p1181
- ISSN
2077-0383
- Publication type
Article
- DOI
10.3390/jcm13041181