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- Title
Prediction in a Non-Partisan Election.
- Authors
Pearson, George W.
- Abstract
The article discusses problems faced by scientific forecasters in a municipal elections in Denver, Colorado. Two problems were how could polling yield a valid prediction when most of the potential candidates were unknown to electorate and what effect would party labels have in a supposedly non-partisan election. During the course of this campaign, Research Enterprises had an opportunity to conduct numerous predictive polls and to experiment with some methods which should have wide application in all kinds of polling. These surveys resulted in some useful conclusions. It is possible to predict in advance of an election whether or not the election will be decided on partisan or non partisan grounds and it is possible to have such a thing as a non-partisan election. The seeds of future voting behavior in the voter's mind can in many cases be examined even before propaganda and interest bring them to conscious choice and articulate expression. Voters appear to make up their minds on the basis of very small amounts of information and the issues created by the professional politician probably are reinforcing rather than determining.
- Subjects
DENVER (Colo.); COLORADO; UNITED States; NONPARTISAN elections; ELECTION forecasting; PUBLIC opinion polls; SOCIOLOGICAL research
- Publication
Public Opinion Quarterly, 1948, Vol 12, Issue 1, p112
- ISSN
0033-362X
- Publication type
Article
- DOI
10.1086/265925