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- Title
Spatiotemporal Fluctuations and Triggers of Ebola Virus Spillover.
- Authors
Schmidt, John Paul; Park, Andrew W.; Kramer, Andrew M.; Han, Barbara A.; Alexander, Laura W.; Drake, John M.
- Abstract
Because the natural reservoir of Ebola virus remains unclear and disease outbreaks in humans have occurred only sporadically over a large region, forecasting when and where Ebola spillovers are most likely to occur constitutes a continuing and urgent public health challenge. We developed a statistical modeling approach that associates 37 human or great ape Ebola spillovers since 1982 with spatiotemporally dynamic covariates including vegetative cover, human population size, and absolute and relative rainfall over 3 decades across sub-Saharan Africa. Our model (area under the curve 0.80 on test data) shows that spillover intensity is highest during transitions between wet and dry seasons; overall, high seasonal intensity occurs over much of tropical Africa; and spillover intensity is greatest at high (>1,000/km2) and very low (<100/km2) human population densities compared with intermediate levels. These results suggest strong seasonality in Ebola spillover from wild reservoirs and indicate particular times and regions for targeted surveillance.
- Subjects
SUB-Saharan Africa; NEGATIVE-strand RNA viruses; EBOLA viral disease transmission; TREATMENT of Ebola virus diseases; PANDEMICS; SPATIOTEMPORAL processes; ANIMALS; BIOLOGICAL models; EBOLA virus disease; EPIDEMICS; PRIMATES; PUBLIC health; RESEARCH funding; SEASONS; TIME; ZOONOSES; STATISTICAL models; EBOLA virus
- Publication
Emerging Infectious Diseases, 2017, p415
- ISSN
1080-6040
- Publication type
journal article
- DOI
10.3201/eid2302.160101