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- Title
Potenzielle Fehlerquellen bei der Erstellung von Kriminalprognosen, die gutachterliche Kompetenzillusion und mögliche Lösungsansätze für eine bessere Prognosepraxis.
- Authors
Rettenberger, Martin; Eher, Reinhard
- Abstract
The present paper gives an overview of potential sources of error and mechanisms of bias that forensic reviewers may face when generating criminal risk assessments. Based on the long-known fact that intuitive and experience-based predictions about future criminal behavior usually yield accuracy rates that are hardly above chancelevel, the authors discuss basic principles of cognitive psychology that are responsible, on the one hand, for this low predictive validity and, on the other hand, for the unshakable belief in the power of human intuition. This latter psychological mechanism, which the scientific literature also calls the »illusion of competence«, leads to a general overestimation of one's own diagnostic and prognostic capabilities. Furthermore, this general human tendency contributes to the fact that well-founded scientific developments in international forensic-criminological research remain largely unaccepted in the daily practice of criminal reviewing. Nevertheless, the present paper ends with a brief presentation of potential solutions to improve the practice of forensic-clinical risk assessment.
- Publication
Recht & Psychiatrie, 2016, Vol 34, Issue 1, p50
- ISSN
0724-2247
- Publication type
Article