We found a match
Your institution may have access to this item. Find your institution then sign in to continue.
- Title
Macroeconomic effects of oil price shocks on an emerging market economy.
- Authors
da Silva Souza, Rodrigo; de Mattos, Leonardo Bornacki
- Abstract
This paper examines the macroeconomic effects of oil demand and supply shocks on an emerging market economy using a Bayesian vector autoregressive model combining zero and sign restrictions. The empirical analysis relies on a rich set of macroeconomic indicators mirroring the economic performance in Brazil. The effects on the Brazilian output of oil price changes driven by global demand shocks are much larger and more persistent than those driven by oil production. Oil price changes that are not related to changes in oil supply or global economic activity have a small impact on the Brazilian variables. The main policy implication of this study is that emerging market economies should identify correctly the source of oil price fluctuation for implementing the best economic policy.
- Subjects
BRAZIL; EMERGING markets; PETROLEUM sales &; prices; ECONOMIC indicators; PRICE fluctuations; AUTOREGRESSIVE models; ECONOMIC policy; CAPITALISM
- Publication
Economic Change & Restructuring, 2023, Vol 56, Issue 2, p803
- ISSN
1573-9414
- Publication type
Article
- DOI
10.1007/s10644-022-09445-w