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- Title
Assessing the nonlinear response of fine particles to precursor emissions: development and application of an extended response surface modeling technique v1.0.
- Authors
Zhao, B.; Wang, S. X.; Xing, J.; Fu, K.; Fu, J. S.; Jang, C.; Zhu, Y.; Dong, X. Y.; Gao, Y.; Wu, W. J.; Wang, J. D.; Hao, J. M.
- Abstract
An innovative extended response surface modeling technique (ERSM v1.0) is developed to characterize the nonlinear response of fine particles (PM2:5/ to large and simultaneous changes of multiple precursor emissions from multiple regions and sectors. The ERSM technique is developed based on the conventional response surface modeling (RSM) technique; it first quantifies the relationship between PM2:5 concentrations and the emissions of gaseous precursors from each single region using the conventional RSM technique, and then assesses the effects of inter-regional transport of PM2:5 and its gaseous precursors on PM2:5 concentrations in the target region. We apply this novel technique with a widely used regional chemical transport model (CTM) over the Yangtze River delta (YRD) region of China, and evaluate the response of PM2:5 and its inorganic components to the emissions of 36 pollutant-region-sector combinations. The predicted PM2:5 concentrations agree well with independent CTM simulations; the correlation coefficients are larger than 0.98 and 0.99, and the mean normalized errors (MNEs) are less than 1 and 2% for January and August, respectively. It is also demonstrated that the ERSM technique could reproduce fairly well the response of PM2:5 to continuous changes of precursor emission levels between zero and 150 %. Employing this new technique, we identify the major sources contributing to PM2:5 and its inorganic components in the YRD region. The nonlinearity in the response of PM2:5 to emission changes is characterized and the underlying chemical processes are illustrated.
- Subjects
RESPONSE surfaces (Statistics); NONLINEAR equations; EMISSIONS (Air pollution); INORGANIC compounds; AIR pollutants
- Publication
Geoscientific Model Development, 2015, Vol 8, Issue 1, p115
- ISSN
1991-959X
- Publication type
Article
- DOI
10.5194/gmd-8-115-2015