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- Title
Climate Change, Water and Agriculture in the Greater Mekong Subregion.
- Authors
Johnston, Robyn; Lacombe, Guillaume; Chu Thai Hoanh; Noble, Andrew; Pavelic, Paul; Smakhtin, Vladimir; Suhardiman, Diana; Kam Suan Pheng; Choo Poh Sze
- Abstract
The report reviews the current status and trends in water management in the Greater Mekong Subregion (GMS); assesses likely impacts of climate change on water resources to 2050 based on historical patterns and simulated projections; examines water management strategies in the context of climate and other changes; and identifies priority actions for governments and communities to improve resilience of the water sector and safeguard food production. The impacts of climate change in Southeast Asia on agriculture and food production will be largely mediated through water, but climate is only one driver of change. Rapid economic development and population growth mean that water resources in the region will be shaped by a complex mixture of social, economic and environment factors. The magnitude of these changes is at least the same as, or greater than, those driven by climate change and will occur in a shorter timespan. Current climate models indicate no clear regional trends in rainfall and water availability, and the degree of uncertainty associated with projections is very high. Given this, it is more useful to characterize likely change as an increase in the variability and uncertainty of water availability and to take a "no regrets" approach to water management, with actions to improve both water productivity and access to on-farm and off-farm storage (both surface water and groundwater) and reduce water-related risks. National governments see expansion of irrigation as an important priority to increase agricultural production and reduce risk from climate change, but water management must go beyond irrigation. Rain-fed agriculture dominates crop production in the GMS, and improvements in water management for rain-fed systems are likely to be the most cost-effective strategies in increasing food production in the region. Because of the importance of the freshwater capture fisheries to regional food security, freshwater ecosystems must be seen as an integral part of agricultural production systems and managed accordingly. This requires attention not only to environmental flows but also to fish migration paths, and wetland habitat coherence and connectivity at the landscape scale. Proposed hydropower development in the major river basins of the GMS will result in changes to river flows at a previously unprecedented scale and rate. In the Mekong, the projected increase in the discharge during the low-flow season is larger than projected irrigation demands from all Lower Mekong countries and could provide significant opportunities for irrigation development. However, the importance of freshwater fisheries to food security in the region underscores the importance of protecting the productive capacity of freshwater ecosystems from the impacts of hydropower and other developments. Adaptation to climate change will take place in a highly dynamic and uncertain context. There are no defined boundaries between climate-specific and non-climate-specific adaptations. Response strategies must be formulated in the context of the whole range of impacts and drivers. A robust approach to adaptation is needed, seeking solutions that address current problems in a manner that builds resilience regardless of the direction of change. One of the major factors determining resilience is economic status and, therefore, poverty reduction is critical to underpinning adaptation efforts in all sectors.
- Subjects
SOUTHEAST Asia; WATER supply -- Environmental aspects; CLIMATE change; BIOLOGICAL adaptation; WATER quality; GROUNDWATER; BIOTIC communities; FOOD production
- Publication
IWMI Research Reports Series, 2010, Issue 136, p1
- ISSN
1026-0862
- Publication type
Article