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- Title
A Probabilistic Extension of the EASI Model.
- Authors
Terao, Norichika; Suzuki, Mitsutoshi
- Abstract
The probability of an adversary's interruption, PI, in specific scenario can be evaluated using a calculationcode, EASI.The purpose of this study is to devise a quantification method for PI by considering the influence of uncertainty and variability. Specifically,attempt to devise a new calculation method for three components of PI: the probability of detection, P(Di); the probability of successful communication to the response force,P(Ci); and the probability of the response force arriving prior to the end of the adversary's completion of the attack, P(RιAi). In addition, we design a hypothetical nuclear facility and an adversary attack scenario, we and then assess the PI value using our new method. We set the performance parameters of the facility as temporary, hypothetical values without a real performance test. We attempt to express the uncertainty and variability of each element of the facility using the Monte Carlo method.
- Subjects
PROBABILITY theory; NUCLEAR facility security measures; NUCLEAR facility safety measures; MONTE Carlo method; NUCLEAR terrorism
- Publication
Journal of Physical Security, 2014, Vol 7, Issue 2, p12
- ISSN
2157-8443
- Publication type
Article