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- Title
Self-exciting point process modelling of crimes on linear networks.
- Authors
D'Angelo, Nicoletta; Payares, David; Adelfio, Giada; Mateu, Jorge
- Abstract
Although there are recent developments for the analysis of first and second-order characteristics of point processes on networks, there are very few attempts in introducing models for network data. Motivated by the analysis of crime data in Bucaramanga (Colombia), we propose a spatiotemporal Hawkes point process model adapted to events living on linear networks. We first consider a non-parametric modelling strategy, for which we follow a non-parametric estimation of both the background and the triggering components. Then we consider a semi-parametric version, including a parametric estimation of the background based on covariates, and a non-parametric one of the triggering effects. Our model can be easily adapted to multi-type processes. Our network model outperforms a planar version, improving the fitting of the self-exciting point process model.
- Subjects
BUCARAMANGA (Colombia); POINT processes; NONPARAMETRIC estimation; CRIME analysis; CRIME; SPATIOTEMPORAL processes
- Publication
Statistical Modelling: An International Journal, 2024, Vol 24, Issue 2, p139
- ISSN
1471-082X
- Publication type
Article
- DOI
10.1177/1471082X221094146