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- Title
Performance of GAP and ILD-GAP models in predicting lung transplant or death in interstitial pneumonia with autoimmune features.
- Authors
Allen, Michael R; Alevizos, Michail K; Zhang, David; Bernstein, Elana J
- Abstract
Objectives To assess the ability of two risk prediction models in interstitial lung disease (ILD) to predict death or lung transplantation in a cohort of patients with interstitial pneumonia with autoimmune features (IPAF). Methods We performed a retrospective cohort study of adults with IPAF at an academic medical centre. The primary outcome was a composite of lung transplantation or death. We applied the patient data to the previously described Gender–Age–Physiology (GAP) and ILD-GAP models to determine the ability of these models to predict the composite outcome. Model discrimination was assessed using the c-index, and model calibration was determined by comparing the incidence ratios of observed vs expected deaths. Results Ninety-four patients with IPAF were included. Mean (s. d.) age was 58 (13.5) years and the majority were female (62%). The majority met serologic and morphologic criteria for IPAF (94% and 91%, respectively). The GAP model had a c-index of 0.664 (95% CI 0.547–0.781), while the ILD-GAP model had a c-index of 0.569 (95% CI 0.440–0.697). In those with GAP stage 1 or GAP stage 2 disease, calibration of the GAP model was satisfactory at 2 and 3 years for the cumulative end point of lung transplantation or death. Conclusion In patients with IPAF, the GAP model performed well as a predictor of lung transplantation or death at 2 years and 3 years from ILD diagnosis in patients with GAP stage 1 and GAP stage 2 disease.
- Subjects
RISK assessment; LUNG transplantation; DEATH; PREDICTION models; ACADEMIC medical centers; SEX distribution; INTERSTITIAL lung diseases; RETROSPECTIVE studies; DESCRIPTIVE statistics; TRANSTHEORETICAL model of change; AGE distribution; LONGITUDINAL method; AUTOIMMUNE diseases; MEDICAL records; ACQUISITION of data; SEROLOGY; IDIOPATHIC interstitial pneumonias; CALIBRATION; COMPARATIVE studies; CONFIDENCE intervals; DISEASE risk factors
- Publication
Rheumatology, 2024, Vol 63, Issue 6, p1568
- ISSN
1462-0324
- Publication type
Article
- DOI
10.1093/rheumatology/kead428