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- Title
Simulative Erdbebenschadensmodellierung auf Grundlage der EMS‐98 – Realitätsnähe und Prognosetauglichkeit.
- Authors
Maiwald, Holger; Schwarz, Jochen
- Abstract
Simulative earthquake damage modeling based on EMS‐98 – reliability and predictability Internationally, various damage models exist to quantify the structural damage to the structure and the resulting losses due to seismic action. The application of the different types of damage functions for a realistic assessment of damage requires a detailed knowledge of the structure and its vulnerability and site‐specific conditions. The intensity‐based damage model for general building stock, developed at the Earthquake Damage Analysis Center of the Bauhaus‐Universität Weimar within the framework of the German Research Network Natural Disasters (DFNK), was validated on the mean damage grades Dm and the reported losses of the 1978 Albstadt earthquake. A consideration of the spreads and uncertainties in the distribution of damage grades Di as well as the mirroring of comparable damage models was still pending. The validation and evaluation of the investigated model approaches is carried out in the paper on the basis of the distribution of the actually occurred structural damages of the seismic events characterized by different site intensities (e.g. Albstadt 1978, L'Aquila 2009). Looking back at the study of DFNK, the results for the metropolitan area of Cologne will be examined again with new building data and the extended damage model. The building vulnerability, aggregated in the DFNK, is transferred to the individual building stock and the influence on the earthquake scenarios is examined. The scatter of structural damage and losses are taken into account by Monte Carlo simulations. The changes in the results compared to the DFNK study are identified and discussed.
- Subjects
L'AQUILA (Italy); COLOGNE (Germany); EARTHQUAKE damage; MONTE Carlo method; EARTHQUAKE intensity; DAMAGE models; NATURAL disasters; METROPOLITAN areas
- Publication
Bautechnik, 2020, Vol 97, Issue 4, p243
- ISSN
0932-8351
- Publication type
Article
- DOI
10.1002/bate.201900064