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- Title
Facing into the Blizzard: Resiliency and Mortality of Native and Domestic North American Ungulates to Extreme Weather Events.
- Authors
Martin, Jeff M.
- Abstract
Simple Summary: Unseasonably early blizzards in the northern Great Plains of the U.S. threaten large mammal populations unacclimated for winter conditions. This region averaged 22 blizzards per winter season during the 2010s and is anticipated to have 32 by the 2050s. Generally, expected weather-related deaths remain one of the highest non-predatory mortality causes for beef cattle and sheep at 16% for each species. But, for horses, expected weather-related deaths are correlated with colic, which represents 31% of equine mortality. For bison, expected weather-related deaths remain below 11%. However, in an early October 2013 blizzard that occurred across 16 counties of western South Dakota, the observed death loss of cattle was 223 times above expected background death loss, sheep were 63 times above expected, horses were 44 times above expected, and bison were 6.7 times above expected. Increased blizzard frequency in the future may threaten domestic ungulate populations in the northern Great Plains, but native ungulates may be well adapted to highly variable climates. For conservation and production systems, building adaptive capacity to support climate-resilient species will reduce losses economically and ecologically. Although similar mortality data for wildlife species other than bison are lacking, it seems plausible that other wildlife may share similar resilient traits to extreme weather events. Ranching bison may provide a ranch-scale alternative pathway for increasing red meat production resiliency in the face of climate change. Unseasonably early blizzards in the northern Great Plains threaten large mammal populations unacclimated for variable and extreme winter conditions. This region averaged 22 blizzards per winter season during the 2010s, up from 6 during the 1960s, and is anticipated to average 32 blizzards by the 2050s. In early October 2013, the fatal Atlas Blizzard affected four livestock and captive species in 16 counties of western South Dakota. Expected one-week total death losses for the study area were estimated from national average background mortality rates: 161 cattle, 102 sheep, 9 horses, and 6 bison. However, observed death loss varied significantly (McNemar's Test: p < 0.001) from the expected during the blizzard with: 35,682 cattle; 6428 sheep; 400 horses; and 40 bison. Observed proportional mortalities varied significantly from the expected proportional mortalities in cattle (83.9% vs. 58.0%); sheep (15.1% vs. 36.7%); horse (0.9% vs. 3.2%); and bison (0.1% vs. 2.1%; chi-squared goodness-of-fit: χ23 = 16.85, p ≤ 0.001). Husbandry practices, animal behavior, and physiology may also explain some of the inequitable death losses for each species. Bison appear to be resilient to blizzards and blizzards are expected to increase due to climate change, therefore, bison may offer viability for ranchers in the face of blizzards and more variable weather.
- Subjects
GREAT Plains; SOUTH Dakota; EXTREME weather; ANIMAL behavior; MAMMAL populations; UNGULATES; BEEF cattle; BLIZZARDS; WINTER
- Publication
Diversity (14242818), 2023, Vol 15, Issue 1, p11
- ISSN
1424-2818
- Publication type
Article
- DOI
10.3390/d15010011