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- Title
A 305-year continuous monthly rainfall series for the Island of Ireland (1711-2016).
- Authors
Murphy, Conor; Broderick, Ciaran; Burt, Timothy P.; Curley, Mary; Duffy, Catriona; Hall, Julia; Harrigan, Shaun; Matthews, Tom K. R.; Macdonald, Neil; McCarthy, Gerard; McCarthy, Mark P.; Mullan, Donal; Noone, Simon; Osborn, Timothy J.; Ryan, Ciara; Sweeney, John; Thorne, Peter W.; Walsh, Seamus; Wilby, Robert L.
- Abstract
A continuous 305-year (1711-2016) monthly rainfall series is created for the Island of Ireland. Two overlapping data sources are employed: i) a previously unpublished UK Meteorological Office note containing annual rainfall anomalies and corresponding proportional monthly totals based on weather diaries and early observational records for the period 1711-1977 and; ii) a long-term, homogenised monthly rainfall series for the island of Ireland for the period 1850-2016. Using estimates of long-term average precipitation from the homogenised series to merge these sources, the new 305-year record is constructed and insights drawn about notable extremes, climate variability and change. The consistency of the resulting series was evaluated by comparison with independent long-term observations and reconstructions of precipitation, temperature and circulation indices from across the British-Irish Isles. Strong decadal consistency is evident throughout the record amongst all series in spring, summer and autumn. The winter series is probably too dry from the 1740s to the 1780s, but strong consistency with other records strengthens confidence from 1790 onwards. The new Island of Ireland series reveals remarkably wet winters during the 1730s, concurrent with a period of strong westerly airflow, glacial advance throughout Scandinavia and near unprecedented warmth in the Central England Temperature record - all consistent with the strong phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation. The driest winter decade in the series coincides with the Laki eruption of 1783-1784. Unusually wet summers occurred in the 1750s, consistent with proxy (tree-ring) reconstructions of summer precipitation in the region. In the annual series, the most recent decade (2006-2015) is found to be the wettest in over 300 years. The new series reveals statistically significant (0.05 level) multi-centennial trends in winter (increasing) and summer (decreasing) seasonal precipitation. However, given uncertainties in the early winter record, the former should be treated as tentative. Importantly, we show that the years 1940 to present - the period with the most widely available digitised records - is unrepresentative of long-term changes in all seasons. Although there are recognized uncertainties in the early record, the derived series offers valuable insights for understanding multi-decadal and centennial rainfall variability in Ireland, and provides a firm basis for benchmarking other long-term records and future reconstructions.
- Subjects
RAINFALL; METEOROLOGICAL precipitation; RAINFALL anomalies; AIR flow; CLIMATE change
- Publication
Climate of the Past Discussions, 2017, p1
- ISSN
1814-9324
- Publication type
Article
- DOI
10.5194/cp-2017-142