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- Title
Mitgliederschwund und Überalterung der Parteien: Prognose der Mitgliederzahlen bis 2040.
- Authors
Dose, Nicolai; Fischer, Anne-Kathrin
- Abstract
With exception of the Greens all parties represented in the German Parliament suffer from a substantial loss of members. This is firstly due to the fact that more party members leave their party than join it, and secondly due to relatively high numbers of cases of death. While the balance of registrations and resignations is influenced among others by the popularity of the parties and by politically relevant events and thus are hardly to project, the amount of cases of death can be predicted to a certain degree. In the presented analysis this is done by referring to mortality tables and the known age distribution of party members. Especially the big parties will suffer a further substantial loss of members: In 2040 the Social Democratic Party and the Christian Democratic Party will have approximately 200.000 members each. The predicted losses will more than halve today's number of party members only due to rising fatalities. A further decline in the amount of members could be caused by a continuing negative balance of registrations and resignations. This development will have substantial impact on party activities.
- Subjects
GERMANY; POLITICAL parties; LEGISLATIVE bodies; SOZIALDEMOKRATISCHE Partei Deutschlands (Political party : Germany); CHRISTIAN democratic parties; GERMAN politics &; government, 1990-
- Publication
Zeitschrift für Parlamentsfragen, 2013, Vol 44, Issue 4, p892
- ISSN
0340-1758
- Publication type
Article