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- Title
Validation of an Ideal Rainfall-Runoff Chain in a GCM Environment.
- Authors
Fraedrich, Klaus; Sielmann, Frank; Cai, Danlu; Zhang, Ling; Zhu, Xiuhua
- Abstract
A biased coinflip Ansatz provides a stochastic regional scale land surface climate model of minimum complexity, which represents physical and stochastic properties of an ideal rainfall-runoff chain. The solution yields the empirically derived Schreiber formula as an Arrhenius-type equation of state W = exp(− D). It is associated with two thresholds and combines river runoff Ro, precipitation P and potential evaporation N as flux ratios, which represent water efficiency, W = Ro/ P, and vegetation states, D = N/ P. This stochastic rainfall-runoff chain is analyzed utilizing a global climate model (GCM) environment. The following results are obtained for present and future climate settings: (i) The climate mean rainfall-runoff chain is validated in terms of consistency and predictability, which demonstrate the stochastic rainfall-runoff chain to be a viable surrogate model for simulating means and variability of regional climates. (ii) Climate change is analyzed in terms of runoff sensitivity/elasticity and attribution measures.
- Subjects
ATMOSPHERIC models; HYDROLOGICAL research; RAINFALL; RUNOFF; WATER management
- Publication
Water Resources Management, 2015, Vol 29, Issue 2, p313
- ISSN
0920-4741
- Publication type
Article
- DOI
10.1007/s11269-014-0703-2