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- Title
DICE and the Carbon Budget for Ambitious Climate Targets.
- Authors
Azar, Christian; Johansson, Daniel J. A.
- Abstract
The Dynamic Integrated Climate‐Economy (DICE) model is one of the most influential Integrated Assessment Models available. Its founder Professor William Nordhaus was recently awarded Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel due to his pioneering work on the economics of climate change. In a recent paper in American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, Nordhaus uses the model to conclude that a 2.5°C target is almost out of reach. In this paper, we update DICE 2016 R2 with state‐of‐the‐art models of the carbon cycle, heat uptake into the oceans, and the role of non‐CO2 forcers. We find that the allowable remaining carbon budget (over the period 2015–2100) to meet a 2.5°C target to be 2,360 GtCO2 whereas the estimate obtained using DICE 2016 R2 is about 460 GtCO2. Nordhaus's estimate of the remaining carbon budget for this target is hence five times lower than estimates made by our updated DICE. We also compare our results with estimates by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), and find our results to be in line with the carbon budgets presented in IPCC SR 1.5. We explain the reasons behind the difference between our result and that of Nordhaus and propose that an updated climate module in DICE is warranted. Plain Language Summary: The Dynamic Integrated Climate‐Economy (DICE) model is one of the most commonly used Integrated Assessment Models to analyse climate policy. It was developed by William Nordhaus who subsequently received the Nobel Prize in economics largely as a result of his work with DICE. Nordhaus has used the DICE model to conclude that ambitious climate target appears infeasible as a consequence of inertia in the climate system. In this paper, we show that there are significant problems with the geophysical modules in DICE. This implies that DICE estimates the carbon budget for ambitious climate targets to be many times smaller than the carbon budget estimated by the IPCC. We update DICE with state of the art climate modules and find results in line with IPCC. Through this procedure we can explain why DICE significanty underestimates the carbon budgets. Since DICE has such a strong standing among modellers, economists, and policy makers, understanding that DICE yields a too low carbon budget for ambitious climate targets and why that is the case is important. We also believe that updating the climate science modules of DICE is warranted if it is to be able to capture climate policy aspects relevant for the two degree target. Key Points: We use the DICE model to estimate the available carbon budget for meeting Paris‐styled temperature targetsWe find that the available carbon budget is a factor of five lower than estimates by more advanced climate modelsWe then update DICE using state‐of‐the‐art models of earth system and explain why DICE estimates find a too low carbon budget
- Subjects
INTERGOVERNMENTAL Panel on Climate Change; CARBON nanofibers; NOBEL Prize in Economics; BUDGET cuts; CLIMATOLOGY; CARBON cycle; CARBON
- Publication
Earth's Future, 2021, Vol 9, Issue 7, p1
- ISSN
2328-4277
- Publication type
Article
- DOI
10.1029/2021EF002041