We found a match
Your institution may have access to this item. Find your institution then sign in to continue.
- Title
Forecasting the rice crop calendar in the northern regions of Iran with emphasis on climate change models.
- Authors
Khairkhah, Anahita; Kamali, Gholamali; Meshkatei, Amir Hossein; Babazadeh, Hossein; Oskouei, Ebrahim Asadi
- Abstract
The impact of climate change and fluctuations in the production of agricultural products can affect food security. Rice, as a critical grain product in the north of Iran and especially in Mazandaran province, is also affected by these factors. This study was done to investigate the impact of climate change on the rice crop calendar. In this study, changes in climate variables were extracted based on CMIP6 models under the SSP scenario from 2021 to 2050 and compared to the base period (1985–2014) in different phonological stages. The results of the evaluation of observational and simulated data by linear scale bias correction (LSBC) show that the model accuracy differs in different stations. So that the highest and lowest accuracy of precipitation is between 4.3 and 12 mm, relative humidity between 1 and 3%, wind speed 0.1–0.2 m/s, maximum temperature between 0.1 and 0.9 °C, average temperature between 0.1 and 0. 7 °C, and the minimum temperature is between 0.1 and 0.5 °C, which indicates the high accuracy of this model. The prediction of climatic variables showed that the maximum, minimum, and average temperature, precipitation, and relative humidity in different stages of rice phenology will have significant changes in the future climate under the SSP scenario. The forecasting results of climatic variables show different behavior in phonological stages, so that, in SSP1-2.6 and SSP3-7.0 scenarios, mainly decreasing changes and SSP5-8.5 scenarios mainly increasing precipitation will occur. Meanwhile, changes in wind speed in all phonological stages and the entire growth period in future scenarios will not have significant changes compared to the base period; however, the significant increase of temperature variables will be evident in all phonological stages and scenarios compared to the base period, especially in the SSP5-8.5 scenario. Also, changing the planting date will change the length of the growth period and the amount of precipitation.
- Subjects
IRAN; MAZANDARAN (Iran); CLIMATE change models; AGRICULTURAL forecasts; PLANT phenology; AGRICULTURAL productivity; FARM produce; WIND speed
- Publication
Paddy & Water Environment, 2024, Vol 22, Issue 1, p41
- ISSN
1611-2490
- Publication type
Article
- DOI
10.1007/s10333-023-00951-9