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- Title
Sea Level Rise and the Great Barrier Reef: The Future Implications on Reef Tidal Dynamics.
- Authors
Mawson, Eleanor E.; Lee, Katherine C.; Hill, Jon
- Abstract
Predicted sea‐level rise (SLR) is anticipated to alter tidal dynamics in the future and this will in turn alter coastal ecosystems, flood risk, and geomorphology. Coral reefs are bathymetrically complex environments where tides play a crucial role in larval and nutrient dispersal. This complexity makes coral reef environments challenging to simulate numerically as a large area needs to be simulated but also with high resolution to capture the complexity. To investigate the influence of SLR on tidal dynamics in coral reef systems we use an unstructured mesh numerical model, with spatially varying resolution, of the Great Barrier Reef (GBR). The present‐day conditions and a total of three future SLR scenarios are considered based on the RCP scenarios. The results focus on the major tidal constituents and tidal range. The M2 constituent generally decreases across gauge locations as sea‐level rises but S2 generally increases. O1 and K1 display small variations or no change. The tidal range experiences ±10% variation depending on the gauge location, meaning it is spatially varying and alters SLR by up to 10%. Overall, SLR will influence tidal dynamics across the GBR altering coastal flooding risk with a spatially varying impact. Management schemes should consider tidal range changes in addition to increases in extreme weather conditions to provide adequate preservation of the coastline, coastal cities and infrastructure in the future. Moreover, changes in tidal patterns and dynamics may alter the distributions of reef spores and larvae and should be included in future plans of reef management. Plain Language Summary: Sea‐level rise (SLR) alters the ebb and flow of tidal currents, as well as altering the tidal range. As sea level is projected to rise in the future it is anticipated that coastal regions will experience a change in tidal patterns also. In turn this will affect coastal flood risk, ecosystems and geomorphology. Coral reefs are complex environments with rapidly changing bathymetry but tides can play a vital role in their functioning. To determine the influence of SLR on changing tidal features in such complex environments, we simulate tides on the Great Barrier Reef, the world's largest reef ecosystem. In order to determine the effects of SLR, spatially‐varying resolution, where model resolution varies across the simulation area, can be used to capture the bathymetric complexity whilst simulating a large enough region. We carry out simulations consisting of the present‐day and three SLR scenarios. Results show complex spatial changes in tidal dynamics with some areas displaying little change, but others displaying a decrease or increase in tidal range that is around 10% of the sea level rise. Coastal management plans should take into consideration both SLR and tidal range changes to protect coastal cities and infrastructure in the future. Key Points: Sea‐level rise alters the tidal dynamics in the Great Barrier ReefChanges in tidal dynamics is spatially complex, with changes in tidal range of up to 10% of the sea‐level riseThe two main tidal component amplitudes change in the opposite direction
- Subjects
GREAT Barrier Reef; REEFS; ABSOLUTE sea level change; EXTREME weather; CORAL reefs &; islands; COASTAL zone management; TIDAL currents; LARVAL dispersal
- Publication
Journal of Geophysical Research. Oceans, 2022, Vol 127, Issue 8, p1
- ISSN
2169-9275
- Publication type
Article
- DOI
10.1029/2021JC017823