We found a match
Your institution may have access to this item. Find your institution then sign in to continue.
- Title
On the Prediction of Upwelling Events at the Colombian Caribbean Coasts from Modis-SST Imagery.
- Authors
Alonso del Rosario, José J.; Vidal Pérez, Juan M.; Blázquez Gómez, Elizabeth
- Abstract
The upwelling cores on the Caribbean Colombian coasts are mainly located at the Peninsula de la Guajira and Cabo de la Aguja. We used monthly averaged Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) sea surface temperature as the only information to build up a prediction model for the upwelling events. This comprised two steps: (i) the reduction of the complexity by means of the Karhunen–Loève transform and (ii) a prediction model of time series. Two prediction models were considered: (a) a parametric autoregressive-moving average (ARMA) time series from the Box–Jenkins methodology and (b) a harmonic synthesis model. The harmonic synthesis also comprised of two steps: the maximum entropy spectral analysis and a least-squares harmonic analysis on the set of frequencies. The parametric ARMA time series model failed at the time of prediction with a very narrow range, and it was quite difficult to apply. The harmonic synthesis allowed prediction with a horizon of six months with a correlation of about 0.80. The results can be summarized using the time series of the weights of the different oscillation modes, their spatial structures with the nodal lines, and a high confidence model with a horizon of prediction of about four months.
- Subjects
OCEAN temperature; HARMONIC analysis (Mathematics); TIME series analysis; PREDICTION models; COASTS
- Publication
Sensors (14248220), 2019, Vol 19, Issue 13, p2861
- ISSN
1424-8220
- Publication type
Article
- DOI
10.3390/s19132861