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- Title
The Value-Add of Tailored Seasonal Forecast Information for Industry Decision Making.
- Authors
Goodess, Clare Mary; Troccoli, Alberto; Vasilakos, Nicholas; Dorling, Stephen; Steele, Edward; Amies, Jessica D.; Brown, Hannah; Chowienczyk, Katie; Dyer, Emma; Formenton, Marco; Nicolosi, Antonio M.; Calcagni, Elena; Cavedon, Valentina; Perez, Victor Estella; Geertsema, Gertie; Krikken, Folmer; Nielsen, Kristian Lautrup; Petitta, Marcello; Vidal, José; De Ruiter, Martijn
- Abstract
There is a growing need for more systematic, robust, and comprehensive information on the value-add of climate services from both the demand and supply sides. There is a shortage of published value-add assessments that focus on the decision-making context, involve participatory or co-evaluation approaches, avoid over-simplification, and address both the quantitative (e.g., economic) and qualitative (e.g., social) values of climate services. The 12 case studies that formed the basis of the European Union-funded SECLI-FIRM project were co-designed by industrial and research partners in order to address these gaps while focusing on the use of tailored sub-seasonal and seasonal forecasts in the energy and water industries. For eight of these case studies, it was possible to apply quantitative economic valuation methods: econometric modelling was used in five case studies while three case studies used a cost/loss (relative economic value) analysis and avoided costs. The case studies illustrated the challenges in attempting to produce quantitative estimates of the economic value-add of these forecasts. At the same time, many of them highlighted how practical value for users—transcending the actual economic value—can be enhanced; for example, through the provision of climate services as an extension to their current use of weather forecasts and with the visualisation tailored towards the user.
- Subjects
EUROPEAN Union; DECISION making; ECONOMIC forecasting; ENERGY industry forecasting; VALUATION; VALUE (Economics); CLIMATE change skepticism
- Publication
Climate (2225-1154), 2022, Vol 10, Issue 10, p152
- ISSN
2225-1154
- Publication type
Article
- DOI
10.3390/cli10100152