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- Title
Evaluating Firearm Violence After New Jersey's Cash Bail Reform.
- Authors
Jahn, Jaquelyn L.; Simes, Jessica T.; Jay, Jonathan
- Abstract
Key Points: Question: Did gun violence in New Jersey increase, decrease, or remain unchanged after implementation of the state's 2017 bail reform policy? Findings: In this case-control study, there was no change in fatal and nonfatal gun violence in New Jersey after substantial declines in jail incarceration under bail reform. Meaning: These findings suggest that bail reform may be an important tool for reducing jail incarceration without exacerbating community gun violence. This case-control study evaluates changes in firearm violence after New Jersey's 2017 bail reform policy, which eliminated cash bail in favor of a risk-based approach that uses an empirical risk assessment tool to help determine whether someone is detained pretrial. Importance: Reducing the pretrial detention population has been a cornerstone of movements to end mass incarceration. Across many US cities, there are ongoing public debates on policies that would end pretrial detention due to the inability to afford bail, with some raising concerns that doing so would increase community violence. Objective: To evaluate changes in firearm violence after New Jersey's 2017 bail reform policy that eliminated financial barriers to avoiding pretrial detention. Design, Setting, and Participants: This case-control study used synthetic control methods to examine changes in firearm mortality and combined fatal and nonfatal shootings in New Jersey (2014-2019). New Jersey was chosen because it was one of the first states to systematically implement cash bail reform. Outcomes in New Jersey were compared with a weighted combination of 36 states that did not implement any kind of reform to pretrial detention during the study period. Data were analyzed from April 2023 to March 2024. Exposure: Implementation of New Jersey's cash bail reform law in 2017. Main Outcomes and Measures: Quarterly rates of fatal and nonfatal firearm assault injuries and firearm self-harm injuries per 100 000 people. Results: Although New Jersey's pretrial detention population dramatically decreased under bail reform, the study did not find evidence of increases in overall firearm mortality (average treatment effect on the treated, −0.26 deaths per 100 000) or gun violence (average treatment effect on the treated, −0.24 deaths per 100 000), or within racialized groups during the postpolicy period. Conclusions and Relevance: Incarceration and gun violence are major public health problems impacting racially and economically marginalized groups. Cash bail reform may be an important tool for reducing pretrial detention and advancing health equity without exacerbating community violence.
- Subjects
NEW Jersey; GUN laws; HEALTH services accessibility; VIOLENCE; GOVERNMENT policy; RESEARCH funding; IMPRISONMENT; DEBATE; RACIALIZATION; DESCRIPTIVE statistics; GUNSHOT wounds; RACE; CASE-control method; HOMICIDE; CRIMINAL justice system; PUBLIC health; CONFIDENCE intervals
- Publication
JAMA Network Open, 2024, Vol 7, Issue 5, pe2412535
- ISSN
2574-3805
- Publication type
Article
- DOI
10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2024.12535