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- Title
Decomposing Long Bond Returns: A Decentralized Theory.
- Authors
Carr, Peter; Wu, Liuren
- Abstract
Classic bond pricing centralizes bond valuation across all maturities by specifying the dynamics of the short-term interest rate. This article develops a decentralized theory that prices each bond based purely on the near-term behavior of the bond's own yield. The theory levers the domain expertise of an investor on a particular bond and allows the investor to make pricing and investment analysis on the bond without the shackles of an ambitious centralizing mandate. The theory decomposes the short-term return on a bond with respect to the variation of its own yield. Imposing no dynamic arbitrage on the return decomposition leads to a simple pricing equation relating the bond yield to the market pricing and conditional mean and variance forecasts of the yield's near-term change. The article illustrates the theory's applications in decentralized investment of a single bond and in the construction and investment of decentralized butterfly bond portfolios.
- Subjects
BONDS (Finance); INTEREST rates; INVESTMENT analysis; BOND prices; BOND market; ARBITRAGE; MARKET prices
- Publication
Review of Finance, 2023, Vol 27, Issue 3, p997
- ISSN
1572-3097
- Publication type
Article
- DOI
10.1093/rof/rfac053