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- Title
Whose trade flows are affected by Global Policy Uncertainty? asymmetric evidence from G7.
- Authors
Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen; Mohammadian, Amirhossein
- Abstract
Baker et al. (Quart J Econ 131:1593–1636, 2016) introduced a news-based measure of uncertainty known as Economic Policy Uncertainty using country level data. The Policy Uncertainty Group now constructs a similar uncertainty measure known as Global Policy Uncertainty (GPU). In this paper, we assess the symmetric and asymmetric effects of GPU on trade flows of each of the G7 countries. While we find significant short-run effects on trade flows of all countries, short-run effects last into the long run, not in all seven countries. In the long run, we found that while exports of Canada, Italy, and Japan will be hurt by increased global uncertainty, those of France will be boosted. As for G7 imports, we found that imports of Canada, France, Germany, Italy, and the U.S. will be hurt by increased global uncertainty.
- Subjects
ITALY; GROUP of Seven countries; ECONOMIC uncertainty; ECONOMIC policy
- Publication
Journal of Economics & Finance, 2024, Vol 48, Issue 1, p1
- ISSN
1055-0925
- Publication type
Article
- DOI
10.1007/s12197-023-09635-w