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- Title
An indicator of technical emergence.
- Authors
Carley, Stephen F.; Newman, Nils C.; Porter, Alan L.; Garner, Jon G.
- Abstract
Developing useful intelligence on scientific and technological emergence challenges those who would manage R&D portfolios, assess research programs, or manage innovation. Recently, the U.S. Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity Foresight and Understanding from Scientific Exposition Program has explored means to detect emergence via text analyses. We have been involved in positing conceptual bases for emergence, framing candidate indicators, and devising implementations. We now present a software script to generate a family of Emergence Indicators for a topic of interest. This paper offers some background, then discusses the development of this script through iterative rounds of testing, and then offers example findings. Results point to promising and actionable intelligence for R&D decision-makers.
- Subjects
RESEARCH &; development; TECHNOLOGICAL innovations; SCIENTOMETRICS; TECHNICAL information; UNITED States. Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity; DECISION making in science
- Publication
Scientometrics, 2018, Vol 115, Issue 1, p35
- ISSN
0138-9130
- Publication type
Article
- DOI
10.1007/s11192-018-2654-5