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- Title
河南输电线路舞动气象风险的可预报性分析.
- Authors
梁允; 陈浩; 何晓凤; 王洁; 肖擎曜; 武正天
- Abstract
In order to study the predictability of line galloping in Henan Province, the predictability of meteorological indices was evaluated by using 121 national meteorological stations observation data and (numerical weather prediction, NWP) data besides the ordinary line galloping prediction model of meteorological risk. The basic meteorological variables were examined by using ordinary statistic methods such as error, absolute error, root mean square error and predictabilities of line galloping in four line galloping prone regions. It revealed the possibility of line galloping prediction by using NWP. The results show that the predictability of line galloping in the plain areas in the east of Henan Province is high, while it is lower in the mountain areas in the west of Henan Province, the predict, abilities of the four galloping prone regions are from high to low are region No. 1 (plain area in the east of Henan Province), region No. 3 (mountain area in the south of Henan Province), region No. 4 (mountain area in the northwest of Henan Province) and region No. 1 (basin area in the southwest of Henan Province). The biases of temperature and wind speed are both small in the plain areas and large in the mountain areas. The predictability of line galloping of meteorological indices from high to low is wind speed, temperature and relative humidity, which the accuracy rates are 73. 4%, 78. 4%, 67. 1% respectively, and the predictability of wind speed and temperature is high in the east and low in the west and the predictability of relative humidity is high in the south and low in the north. In order to improve the level of prediction, it is necessary to correct the different forecast variables in different region for the predictabilities of temperature, wind speed and relative humidity are not totally the same in different areas.
- Publication
Science Technology & Engineering, 2022, Vol 22, Issue 12, p4739
- ISSN
1671-1815
- Publication type
Article