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- Title
Monthly Average Temperature Modeling in an Intertropical Region.
- Authors
Andrade-Bejarano, Mercedes
- Abstract
Data for this research come from time series of monthly average temperatures from 28 sites over the Valle del Cauca of Colombia in South America, collected over the period 1971-2002. Because of the geographical location of the study area, monthly average temperature is affected by altitude and El Niño-La Niña (El Niño-Southern Oscillation, or ENSO phenomenon). Time series for some of the sites show a tendency to increase. Also, because of the two dry and wet periods in the study area, a seasonal pattern of behavior in monthly average temperature is seen. Linear mixed models are formulated and fitted to account for within- and between-site variations. The ENSO phenomenon is modeled by the Southern Oscillation index (SOI) and dummy variables. Spatial and temporal covariance structures in the errors are modeled individually using isotropic variogram models. The fitted models demonstrate the influence of the ENSO phenomenon on monthly average temperatures; this is seen in the maps produced from the models for ENSO and normal conditions. These maps show the predicted spatial patterns for differences in temperature throughout the study area.
- Subjects
VALLE del Cauca (Colombia); COLOMBIA; ATMOSPHERIC models; TEMPERATURE effect; DATA analysis; MATHEMATICAL mappings; TIME series analysis; PERFORMANCE evaluation
- Publication
Weather & Forecasting, 2013, Vol 28, Issue 5, p1099
- ISSN
0882-8156
- Publication type
Article
- DOI
10.1175/WAF-D-12-00077.1