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- Title
Considering Commercial Competition, Technological Diffusion, and Substitution to Forecast Telecom Subscribers.
- Authors
Chih-Hsuan Wang; Wen-Yu Liu
- Abstract
Today, 5G technology coupled with cloud computing and artificial intelligence have boosted a new era of mobile commerce. Thus, forecasting telecom subscribers can help firms conduct planning for financial budgets and promotion plans. However, past studies rarely incorporate commercial competition, technological diffusion, and substitution into the prediction of adopters. To facilitate research gaps, this research proposes a novel framework to accomplish the following goals: (1) Interaction dynamics between the competing firms is incorporated to estimate market equilibriums and market shares. (2) Diffusion dynamics within the same generation is used to respectively estimate the maximum of 3G and 4G+5G subscribers and when to appear. (3) Substitution dynamics between 3G and 4G is extended to track revolution trends in the rising 5G market. To justify research validity, Chung Hwa (CH), Taiwan Mobile (TW), and Far Eastern (FE), are illustrated. Research findings show that the relationships, predator-prey, exist between large-scale firms (beneficial) and small-scale firms (harmful) and the subscribers for all the top three firms are expected to decrease in market equilibriums. Although multi-generation models perform much better in forecasting subscribers, single-generation models are able to estimate the maximum of the 5G subscribers and corresponding time occurrence given the fitted parameters in 3G and 4G. Therefore, it can provide a quantitative basis to help telecom firms conduct financial planning for constructing base stations.
- Subjects
MARKET equilibrium; TELECOMMUNICATION; EVIDENCE gaps; MOBILE commerce; ARTIFICIAL intelligence
- Publication
Journal of Management & Systems, 2023, Vol 30, Issue 3, p263
- ISSN
1023-9863
- Publication type
Article
- DOI
10.29416/JMS.202307_30(3).0001