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- Title
PANDEMIA COVID-19: IMPACTO ECONOMICO Y POLITICAS ANTICICLICAS. SIMULACIONES BASADAS EN UN MODELO DE EQUILIBRIO GENERAL COMPUTADO DE ARGENTINA.
- Authors
OKS, DANIEL; CHISARI, OMAR; VILA MARTINEZ, JUAN PABLO
- Abstract
A computable general equilibrium model of Argentina was adapted to analyze the impact of the Covid-19 pandemia on the economy and to assess the mitigating effects of anticyclical policies. The simulations are consistent with the observed performance of GDP, unemployment and social welfare. The anticyclical program is effective in reducing the short term adverse impact on several economic and social indicators, particularly, on social welfare. But over the medium and long term, smaller capital accumulation and sovereign indebtment imply lower growth and welfare. A sustainable fiscal policy -that stabilizes the debt-GDP ratio-allows the economy to, through higher investment and employment creation recover the base scenario levels (only) after 10 years.
- Subjects
ARGENTINA; COVID-19 pandemic; ECONOMIC impact; COMPUTABLE general equilibrium models; ECONOMIC expansion; ECONOMIC indicators; PUBLIC welfare; FISCAL policy; SOCIAL services; JOB creation; SOCIAL indicators
- Publication
Economic Analysis Review / Revista de Análisis Económico, 2023, Vol 38, Issue 1, p101
- ISSN
0716-5927
- Publication type
Article