We found a match
Your institution may have access to this item. Find your institution then sign in to continue.
- Title
Mathematical modelling of the impact of treating latent tuberculosis infection in the elderly in a city with intermediate tuberculosis burden.
- Authors
Chong, Ka Chun; Leung, Chi Chiu; Yew, Wing Wai; Zee, Benny Chung Ying; Tam, Greta Chun Huen; Wang, Maggie Haitian; Jia, Katherine Min; Chung, Pui Hong; Lau, Steven Yuk Fai; Han, Xiaoran; Yeoh, Eng Kiong
- Abstract
Hong Kong is a high-income city with intermediate tuberculosis (TB) burden primarily driven by endogenous reactivations. A high proportion of remote latently infected people, particularly elderly, hinders the effectiveness of current strategies focusing on passive TB detection. In this study, we developed a mathematical model to evaluate the impact of treating latent TB infection (LTBI) in the elderly in addition to current TB control strategies. The model was calibrated using the annual age-stratified TB notifications from 1965-2013 in Hong Kong. Our results showed that at present, approximately 75% of annual new notifications were from reactivations. Given the present treatment completion rate, even if only a low to moderate proportion (approximately 20% to 40%) of elderly people were screened and treated for LTBI, the overall TB incidence could be reduced by almost 50%, to reach the 2025 milestone of the global End TB Strategy. Nevertheless, due to a high risk of hepatotoxicity in elderly population, benefit-risk ratios were mostly below unity; thus, intervention programs should be carefully formulated, including prioritising LTBI treatment for high-risk elderly groups who are closely monitored for possible adverse side effects.
- Publication
Scientific Reports, 2019, Vol 9, Issue 1, p1
- ISSN
2045-2322
- Publication type
Article
- DOI
10.1038/s41598-019-41256-4