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- Title
Importance of three-dimensional grids and time-dependent factors for applications of earthquake forecasting models to subduction environments.
- Authors
Chung-Han Chan
- Abstract
This study provides some new insights into earthquake forecasting models that are applied to regions with subduction systems, including the depth component for forecasting grids and time-dependent factors. To demonstrate the importance of depth component, a forecasting approach, which incorporates three-dimensional grids, is compared with an approach with two-dimensional cells. Through application to the two subduction regions, Ryukyu and Kanto, it is shown that the approaches with three-dimensional grids always demonstrate a better forecasting ability. I thus confirm the importance of depth dependency for forecasting, especially for applications to a subduction environment or a region with non-vertical seismogenic structures. In addition, this study discusses the role of time-dependent factors for forecasting models and concludes that time dependency only becomes crucial during the period with significant seismicity rate change that follows a large earthquake.
- Subjects
EARTHQUAKE hazard analysis; SUBDUCTION zones; INDUCED seismicity; EARTH sciences; THERMODYNAMIC control
- Publication
Natural Hazards & Earth System Sciences, 2016, Vol 16, Issue 9, p2177
- ISSN
1561-8633
- Publication type
Article
- DOI
10.5194/nhess-16-2177-2016