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- Title
Combination forecast on tourism demands based on IOWA operator.
- Authors
Fang Lu; Xinchun Zhu; Zhiqiang Peng; Xinmin Zhou
- Abstract
Accurate tourism demand forecasting can reduce the occurrence of the unreasonable tourism investment planning, scenic spots crowded and the decline of tourism enterprise's service quality in busy season, etc. In order to improve the prediction accuracy of tourism demand, this paper analyzes the disadvantage of the general combination forecast and introduces the concept of IOWA (Induced Ordered Weighted Averaging) operator. Two kinds of single forecasting models, that is ARIMA and GM (1, 1), on tourism demand are firstly established, after then, and then the combination forecasting model in tourism demand based on the IOWA operator is established, which is concerned with two single prediction models' prediction accuracy at each time period. In the end, the combination forecasting model is applied to the forecasting of inbound tourist to Hunan Province. The results show that the proposed combination forecasting model can narrow the prediction error effectively and improve the prediction accuracy, which can be as an effective tool for tourism demand forecasting.
- Subjects
TOURISM; STATISTICAL weighting
- Publication
Metallurgical & Mining Industry, 2015, Issue 4, p116
- ISSN
2076-0507
- Publication type
Article