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- Title
Rockburst and Gas Outburst Forecasting using a Probabilistic Risk Assessment Framework in Longwall Top Coal Caving Faces.
- Authors
Agrawal, Harshit; Durucan, Sevket; Cao, Wenzhuo; Korre, Anna; Shi, Ji-Quan
- Abstract
A probabilistic risk assessment framework was developed to mathematically represent the complex engineering phenomena of rock bursts and gas outbursts for a heterogeneous coal seam. An innovative object-based non-conditional simulation approach was used to distribute lithological heterogeneity present in the coal seam to respect their geological origin. The changing mining conditions during longwall top coal caving mining (LTCC) were extracted from a coupled numerical model to provide statistically sufficient data for probabilistic analysis. The complex interdependencies among abutment stress, pore pressure, the volume of total gas emission and incremental energy release rate, their stochastic variations and uncertainty were realistically implemented in the GoldSim software, and 100,000 equally likely scenarios were simulated using the Monte Carlo method to determine the probability of rock bursts and gas outbursts. The results obtained from the analysis incorporate the variability in mechanical, elastic and reservoir properties of coal due to lithological heterogeneity and result in the probability of the occurrence of rock bursts, coal and gas outbursts, and safe mining conditions. The framework realistically represents the complex mining environment, is resilient and results are reliable. The framework is generic and can be suitably modified to be used in different underground mining scenarios, overcoming the limitations of earlier empirical indices used. Highlights: Parameters causing rockbursts and gas outbursts were linked along with their influences and interdependencies into a probabilistic risk assessment framework. Dynamically updated system feedback from the numerical model was fed into the framework to represent the current stress state in retreating mining and estimate the probability of the occurrence of rockbursts and gas outbursts. Statistically significant data were used to quantify the probability of rockbursts and gas outbursts using Monte Carlo simulation.
- Subjects
GAS bursts; MINES &; mineral resources; COAL mining; ROCK bursts; MONTE Carlo method; GAS condensate reservoirs; ROCK deformation
- Publication
Rock Mechanics & Rock Engineering, 2023, Vol 56, Issue 10, p6929
- ISSN
0723-2632
- Publication type
Article
- DOI
10.1007/s00603-022-03076-3