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- Title
دور اسدطلأئن الرأي في العملبه اةنتخابية دراسه عن اةنتخابات 11)سرائدلبة وة لكو نسبق 2019
- Authors
Megahed, Gamal
- Abstract
It has become very difficult to challenge, or to deny the fact that opinion polls play a major role in the social and political process of any given society. Hence, great efforts have been exerted to understand the relation between opinion polls and elections in particular in various political systems. At the forefront of the issues related to the impact of opinion polls comes the case of elections, in which polls play a significant role of ostentatious impact on the public opinion. The interest shown by local, Arab and international media in the elections held in Israel and Tunisia in 2019 stands witness to the importance of these elections. The Knesset elections are no longer an internal affair, but rather a regional concern, since Israel is a power that greatly affects the situation in the Middle East. Similarly, the Tunisian presidential elections pose a new hope for the advocates of the Arab Spring, since the Arab public opinion awaits the success of the natal democratic experience in Tunisia. This study aims to analyse the role of opinion polls and poll centers in both countries, in an attempt to compare between a state that has a firmly established concept of democracy, with all the necessary elements such as elections and accompanying polls, and a state that is finding its way towards the establishment of a democratic system, allowing for some elements such as opinion polls. The study objectives, thus, focus on identifying the importance of opinion polls, and their potential as a major factor and effective instrument of democratic elections. It also aims to determine the extent of freedom, professionalism and legal status of poll centers in performing their tasks. The study, therefore, focused on analyzing samples of opinion polls held in both Israel and Tunisia, which were run specifically for the legislative elections in Israel in September 2019, and the polls run for the presidential elections of Tunisia in September and October 2019. Several important findings were drawn from the study, most prominent of which are that opinion polls were first used in Israel in 1947, whereas in Tunisia they were first introduced in 2014. This confirms the relation between the interest in opinion polls and the nature of the political system. Another prominent conclusion is that although the Tunisian experience is still young, we can observe a great degree of professionalism and accuracy in the opinion polls held in Tunisia. The study also found the presence of laws that regulate the process of opinion polling in Israel, whereas in Tunisia they do not fall within any legal jurisdiction, since there are no regulating laws so far: there are only a variety of political forces which prevent the legislation of polling.
- Publication
BAU Journal - Society, Culture & Human Behavior, 2020, Vol 2, Issue 1, p136
- ISSN
2663-9122
- Publication type
Article