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- Title
Are exports a reliable source of economic growth in MENA countries? New evidence from the rolling Granger causality method.
- Authors
Abosedra, Salah; Tang, Chor Foon
- Abstract
Earlier investigations have concentrated on the effect of export expansion on economic growth while ignoring the importance of the stability of such relationship. This paper re-investigates empirically the export-led growth (ELG) hypothesis for five countries in the MENA region: Egypt, Jordan, Morocco, Tunisia, and Turkey, using the Granger causality technique. This study covers the sample period from 1980:Q1 to 2012:Q4. With the full sample, we find evidence supporting the ELG hypothesis only in Jordan, Morocco, and Turkey. Nonetheless, our time-varying Granger causality results have significantly validated the evidence of instability of the ELG hypothesis in these MENA countries. Therefore, changes in policies and regulations to improve the export sector of these countries will not ultimately pay off in terms of achieving high rates of stable economic growth in these countries. Policymakers in these countries should search for the alternative catalyst of growth to continuously as well as to effectively promote long-term economic growth in these countries.
- Subjects
JORDAN; GRANGER causality test; CAUSATION (Philosophy); EXPORTS; ECONOMIC development; ECONOMIC conditions in Egypt; ECONOMIC conditions in Turkey; TUNISIAN economy; ECONOMIC history
- Publication
Empirical Economics, 2019, Vol 56, Issue 3, p831
- ISSN
0377-7332
- Publication type
Article
- DOI
10.1007/s00181-017-1374-7