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- Title
ЗАСТАРЯВАНЕТО НА НАСЕЛЕНИЕТО КАТО ФАКТОР ЗА ГЕНЕРИРАНЕ НА ДЕФЛАЦИЯ В БЪЛГАРСКОТО СТОПАНСТВО
- Authors
Георгиев, Георги
- Abstract
This paper tries to provide both theoretical and empirical explanation of why population aging is often associated with deflationary processes nowadays. After a regression and correlation analysis of a data set for Bulgaria, it was found a correlation between some of the demography factors and low-frequency inflation which can easily transform into deflation. In particular, both the share of people at and over 65 ages to the total number of people and the average median age of the population are correlated with low inflation and even deflation. On the other hand, the number of live births is basically related with higher inflation rates. This can be explained by the effects of an increase in longevity and declined fertility rates. The two factors are a major premise for demographic shifts and thus decline in prices. The developed model covers 18 observations which mean that it could be said to be realistic, because it includes almost all available information for the specific period from the beginning of the new century up to nowadays, to be more accurate - from 2001 to 2018. Currently deflation seems to be one of the most dangerous threats for the economy generally and understanding what can cause it is a fundamental topic for the modern economists and politicians. The core challenge is to succeed managing it and thus to even prevent it. However, this could happen only if we know how deflation is created. Exactly, one of the ways deflation could occur in most of the developed countries including Bulgaria is by the above mentioned processes of increasing of longevity and decreasing of fertility rates.
- Subjects
BULGARIA; REGRESSION analysis; STATISTICAL correlation; DEVELOPED countries; DATA analysis; LONGEVITY; POPULATION aging
- Publication
Management & Education / Upravlenie i Obrazovanie, 2020, Vol 16, Issue 1, p13
- ISSN
1312-6121
- Publication type
Article