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- Title
Huizhou GDP forecast based on fractional opposite-direction accumulating nonlinear grey bernoulli markov model.
- Authors
Qiu, Meilan; Li, Dewang; Luo, Zhongliang; Yu, Xijun
- Abstract
In this paper, a fractional opposite-direction accumulating nonlinear grey Bernoulli Markov model (FOANGBMKM) is established to forecast the annual GDP of Huizhou city from 2017 to 2021. The optimal fractional order number and nonlinear parameters of the model are determined by particle swarm optimization (PSO) algorithm. An experiment is provided to validate the high fitting accuracy of this model, and the effect of prediction is better than that of the other four competitive models such as autoregressive integrated moving average model (ARIMA), grey model (GM (1, 1)), fractional accumulating nonlinear grey Bernoulli model (FANGBM (1, 1)) and fractional opposite-direction accumulating nonlinear grey Bernoulli model (FOANGBM (1, 1)), which proves the robustness of the opposite-direction accumulating nonlinear Bernoulli Markov model. This research will provide a scientific basis and technical references for the economic planning industries.
- Subjects
GROSS domestic product; BERNOULLI numbers; PARTICLE swarm optimization; CENTRAL economic planning; ECONOMIC policy
- Publication
Electronic Research Archive, 2023, Vol 31, Issue 2, p1
- ISSN
2688-1594
- Publication type
Article
- DOI
10.3934/era.2023047