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- Title
Mathematical Modeling of Vibrio vulnificus Infection in Korea and the Influence of Global Warming
- Authors
Chu, Chaeshin; Do, Younghae; Kim, Yongkuk; Saito, Yasuhisa; Lee, Sun-Dong; Park, Haemo; Lee, Jong-Koo
- Abstract
Abstract: Objectives: To investigate the possible link between Vibrio vulnificus population size in seawater and water temperature. Methods: We collected incidence and water temperature data in coastal regions of Korea and constructed a mathematical model that consisted of three classes; susceptible fish, infected fish available to humans, and infected humans. Results: We developed a mathematical model to connect V. vulnificus incidence with water temperature using estimated bacterial population sizes and actual coastal water temperatures. Conclusion: Increased V. vulnificus population sizes in marine environments may increase the risk of infection in people who eat at coastal restaurants in Korea. Furthermore, we estimated the near-future number of infected patients using our model, which will help to establish a public-health policy to reduce the disease burden.
- Subjects
KOREA; VIBRIO vulnificus; GLOBAL warming; BACTERIAL diseases; SEAWATER; WATER temperature; HEALTH policy; MATHEMATICAL models
- Publication
Osong Public Health & Research Perspectives, 2011, Vol 2, Issue 1, p51
- ISSN
2210-9099
- Publication type
Article
- DOI
10.1016/j.phrp.2011.05.002