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- Title
Drought and Flood in the Anthropocene: Modelling Feedback Mechanisms.
- Authors
Di Baldassarre, Giuliano; Martinez, Fabian; Kalantari, Zahra; Viglione, Alberto
- Abstract
Over the last few decades, numerous studies have investigated human impacts on drought and flood events, while conversely other studies have explored human responses to hydrological extremes. Yet, there is still little understanding about the dynamics resulting from their interplay, i.e. both impacts and responses. Current quantitative methods therefore fail to assess future risk dynamics and, as a result, while risk reduction strategies built on these methods often work in the short term, they can lead to unintended consequences in the longer term. In this paper, we review the puzzles and dynamics resulting from the interplay of society and hydrological extremes, and describe our initial efforts to model hydrological extremes in the Anthropocene. In particular, we first discuss the need for a novel approach to explicitly account for human interactions with both drought and flood events, and then present a stylized model simulating the reciprocal effects between water management and hydrological extremes. Lastly, we highlight the unprecedented opportunity offered by the current proliferation of big data to unravel the coevolution of hydrological extremes and society across scales, and along gradients of social and hydrological conditions.
- Subjects
DROUGHTS &; the environment; FLOOD risk; ANTHROPOCENE Epoch
- Publication
Earth System Dynamics Discussions, 2016, p1
- ISSN
2190-4995
- Publication type
Article
- DOI
10.5194/esd-2016-65