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- Title
İklim Değişikliğinin Deniz Suyu Sıcaklıkları Üzerindeki Olası Etkilerinin Değerlendirilmesi: Orta Karadeniz Örneği.
- Authors
Nacar, Sinan; Mete, Betül; Tokgöz, Betül Sezanur; Bayram, Adem
- Abstract
Climate change is defined as a serious environmental threat that global ecosystems face, and increasing global air temperatures due to climate change can also cause changes in seawater temperatures. These changes have a potential to significantly disrupt the ecological balance in the seas. The aim of this study is to investigate the possible effects of climate change on the seawater temperatures recorded in the İnebolu and Sinop meteorological observation stations located on the Central Black Sea coast of Turkey. Within the scope of the study, the SSP2-4.5 (optimistic) and SSP5-8.5 (pessimistic) scenario outputs of four general circulation models selected from the CMIP6 archive were downscaled to regional scale by artificial neural networks statistical downscaling method, and future period (2023-2052) seawater temperature values were estimated for both stations. It has been determined that the monthly mean seawater temperatures at İnebolu station may vary between -0.24 and 1.66 °C according to the optimistic scenario and between -0.30 and 1.71 °C according to the pessimistic scenario, and annual average values are predicted to increase by 0.67 and 0.56 °C, respectively. The monthly mean seawater temperatures at Sinop station are predicted to change between 0.18 and 1.95 °C according to the optimistic scenario outputs and between 0.34 and 1.85 °C according to the pessimistic scenario outputs, and increases of 0.93 and 0.98 °C are predicted to occur in the annual average values.
- Publication
International Journal of Engineering Research & Development (IJERAD), 2024, Vol 16, Issue 1, p279
- ISSN
1308-5514
- Publication type
Article
- DOI
10.29137/umagd.1402913