We found a match
Your institution may have access to this item. Find your institution then sign in to continue.
- Title
From a false sense of safety to resilience under uncertainty.
- Authors
Heino, Matti T. J.; Proverbio, Daniele; Kaisa Saurio; Siegenfeld, Alexander; Hankonen, Nelli
- Abstract
Understanding and acting upon risk is notably challenging, and navigating complexity with understandings developed for stable environments may inadvertently build a false sense of safety. Neglecting the potential for non-linear change or "black swan" events - highly impactful but uncommon occurrences - may lead to naive optimisation under assumed stability, exposing systems to extreme risks. For instance, loss aversion is seen as a cognitive bias in stable environments, but it can be an evolutionarily advantageous heuristic when complete destruction is possible. This paper advocates for better accounting of non-linear change in decision-making by leveraging insights from complex systems and psychological sciences, which help to identify blindspots in conventional decision-making and to develop risk mitigation plans that are interpreted contextually. In particular, we propose a framework using attractor landscapes to visualize and interpret complex system dynamics. In this context, attractors are states toward which systems naturally evolve, while tipping points - critical thresholds between attractors - can lead to profound, unexpected changes impacting a system's resilience and well-being. We present four generic attractor landscape types that provide a novel lens for viewing risks and opportunities, and serve as decision-making contexts. The main practical contribution is clarifying when to emphasize particular strategies - optimisation, risk mitigation, exploration, or stabilization - within this framework. Contextappropriate decision making should enhance system resilience and mitigate extreme risks.
- Subjects
COGNITIVE bias; LOSS aversion; SYSTEM dynamics; SYSTEMS theory; DECISION making; WELL-being
- Publication
Frontiers in Psychology, 2024, p1
- ISSN
1664-1078
- Publication type
Article
- DOI
10.3389/fpsyg.2024.1346542