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- Title
Spatio-temporal distribution of broad-leaved Quercus semecarpifolia indicates altitudinal shift in northwestern Himalayas.
- Authors
Shekhar, Chander; Ginwal, Harish S.; Meena, Rajendra K.; Shankhwar, Rajeev; Martins-Ferreira, Marco Antonio Caçador; Pandey, Shailesh; Barthwal, Santan; Bhandari, Maneesh S.
- Abstract
The Himalayan region is not only threatened by rapid anthropogenic activities but also by the effects of global climate change. Given the uncertainties in magnitude and characteristics of climate change, it is of crucial importance to accumulate prior knowledge of existing and the adaptive future change in the distribution pattern of tree species, especially in the Himalayas which are pronounced with highly heterogeneous ecology. Quercus semecarpifolia, a high-altitude Oak, ranges up to timberline in the Himalayan region. This species forms the climax community on the southern aspect of the mountainside, and is considered to be one of the oldest trees belonging to the Himalayan region. Due to climate-influenced phenomena like masting and inherently slow growth rate, this dominant species is under severe decline. Hence, the present study aimed to delineate and predict the potential distribution range of Q. semecarpifolia in the Uttarakhand region of northwestern Himalayas in relation to associated species, land use land cover, wind, edaphic and bioclimatic variables. Furthermore, potential spatio-temporal variations within the purview of climate change were also predicted through MaxEnt modelling. In total, 589 geo-coordinates were recorded during field surveys (2016–2021) that cover a wide-range of slope, aspect and elevation. Over the WorldClim dataset, ~ 70% well-distributed geo-coordinates were used for training the model and the remaining for validation. The model performance was supported by statistically significant and high AUC value of 0.943 ± 0.059; whereas, the Jackknife test showed that bioclimatic variables, namely annual temperature range (Bio 7), precipitation of the driest month (Bio 14), minimum temperature of the coldest month (Bio 6), and mean temperature of the coldest quarter (Bio 11) contributed significantly in predicting the current distribution of Q. semecarpifolia. The species is majorly distributed in a total of 29 sites belonging to nine districts (dominated in Pithoragarh, Chamoli and Uttarkashi) with altitude ranging from 2249 (Ghes) to 3652 m (Karandam Bugyal). The distribution was further overlaid on KGCC map, which showed maximum occurrence in Cwb (C = warm temperate, w = winter dry, and b = warm summer), i.e., subtropical highland oceanic climate of middle and upper Himalayas constituted by the northwestern Bageshwar, southern Chamoli, small stretch of northeastern Pauri, southeastern Rudraprayag, northern Tehri and Uttarkashi. In the study area, Q. semecarpifolia has been observed to be associated with 19 tree species, where the highest density ratio was recorded with Rhododendron arboreum. The MaxEnt model-based prediction revealed an area of ~ 832 km2 with the loss of ~ 79 km2 (RCP 8.5_2050) and ~ 168 km2 (RCP 8.5_2070), in advancing upslope of the northwestern Himalayas. Geological analysis indicated that tectonic uplift, an important control to the altitudinal shift modelled for the distribution of Q. semecarpifolia due to time scale divergence. Bedrock composition variations, however, might control distribution by means of influencing soil acidity. This study predicts an upslope movement of Q. semecarpifolia in response to climate change where topography and climatic factors could play a significant role.
- Subjects
HIMALAYA Mountains; MARINE west coast climate; CLIMATE change; MOUNTAIN climate; OAK; SPATIO-temporal variation; LAND cover
- Publication
Plant Ecology, 2022, Vol 223, Issue 6, p671
- ISSN
1385-0237
- Publication type
Article
- DOI
10.1007/s11258-022-01240-x