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- Title
Large scale analysis of changing frequencies of rain-on-snow events and their impact on floods.
- Authors
Freudiger, D.; Kohn, I.; Stahl, K.; Weiler, M.
- Abstract
In January 2011 a rain-on-snow (RoS) event caused floods in the major river basins in Central Europe, i.e. the Rhine, Danube, Weser, Elbe, Oder, Ems basins. This event prompted the question how to define a RoS event and whether those events have become more frequent. Based on the flood of January 2011 and on other known events of the past, threshold values for RoS events were determined and consequently events which combine average rainfall of at least 3mm on a snowpack of at least 10mm snow water equivalent (SWE) as well as 20% melt content by summing rainfall and snowmelt were analysed. RoS events were estimated for the last 61 yr and for the entire study area based on a temperature-index snow model driven with the European-scale E- OBS data. Frequencies and magnitude differ depending on the elevation range. When distinguishing alpine, upland, and lowland basins, we found that upland basins are most influenced by RoS events. Over the last decades their occurrences shifted from late to early winter. Overall, the frequency of rainfall increased in the winter, while the frequency of snowfall decreased in the spring. In nearly all lowland and upland basins an increasing trend in the frequency of RoS events since 1980 was observed. These results suggest an increasing flood hazard from RoS events in January and February in the medium mountain ranges of Central Europe, especially in the Rhine, Weser, and Elbe river basins.
- Subjects
LOWLANDS (Scotland); RAINFALL; CLIMATE change; FLOODS; ATMOSPHERIC temperature; HAZARD mitigation
- Publication
Hydrology & Earth System Sciences Discussions, 2013, Vol 10, Issue 11, p13231
- ISSN
1812-2108
- Publication type
Article
- DOI
10.5194/hessd-10-13231-2013