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- Title
Magyar Nemzeti Bank: Csökkenő pályán az infláció.
- Authors
NORBERT, CSORBA
- Abstract
The Hungarian economy expanded dynamically last year. With the 4.6 percent annual GDP growth Hungary placed in the middle of the growth ranking of European countries. The time profile of growth was characterised by a duality: the dynamic growth in the first half of the year slowed down in the second half. Most sectors contributed to growth, while agriculture hampered GDP due to the extraordinary drought. As a reflection of last year, Hungary’s growth in 2023 will also be characterised by duality in terms of its time profile and structure. Economic growth will accelerate in the second half of the year and is expected to average between 0.0–1.5 percent for 2023 as a whole. Structurally, it is entirely based on net export growth, while inflation holding back consumption and the uncertain global economic environment restraining investments. Domestic inflation peaked in January 2023. In February, the year-on-year headline inflation was 25.4 percent, while core inflation was 25.2 percent. Inflation slowed down by 0.3 percentage points compared to the previous month, the price dynamics of processed food, alongside with fuel prices contributed the most to the disinflation. From the second quarter onwards, the CPI is expected to decline at an accelerating pace. Both external and internal factors point towards disinflation. Inflation will return to the central bank’s tolerance band in 2024. Labour demand has so far not reacted significantly to the economic slowdown and remains robust. Stable labour market developments are helping to re-launch economic activity. The current account balance reached its low in 2022, with the deficit rose to 8.1 percent of GDP. In line with the improvement in the external trade balance, including the energy balance, the current account balance is on an improving trend, the deficit will be halved in 2023.
- Subjects
HUNGARY; INTERNATIONAL trade; PRICES; BALANCE of payments; BALANCE of trade; PRICE deflation; FOOD prices; CONSUMER price indexes
- Publication
Külgazdaság, 2023, Vol 67, Issue 3/4, p68
- ISSN
0324-4202
- Publication type
Article
- DOI
10.47630/KULG.2023.67.3-4.68