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- Title
Beyond Self-Reports: Changes in Biomarkers as Predictors of Mortality.
- Authors
Glei, Dana A.; Goldman, Noreen; Rodríguez, Germán; Weinstein, Maxine
- Abstract
The proliferation of biosocial surveys has increased the importance of weighing the costs and benefits of adding biomarker collection to population-based surveys. A crucial question is whether biomarkers offer incremental value beyond self-reported measures, which are easier to collect and impose less respondent burden. We use longitudinal data from a nationally representative sample of older Taiwanese (aged 54+ in 2000, examined in 2000 and 2006 with mortality follow-up through 2011) to address that question with respect to predicting all-cause mortality. A summary measure of biomarkers improves mortality prediction (as measured by the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve) compared with self-reports alone, but individual biomarkers perform better than the summary score. We find that incorporating change in biomarkers over a six-year period yields a small improvement in mortality prediction compared with one-time measurement. But, is the incremental value worth the costs?
- Subjects
TAIWAN; BIOSOCIAL theory; BIOMARKERS; SURVEYS; DEATH forecasting; DEMOGRAPHIC research; SELF-evaluation; HEALTH risk assessment of older people; HISTORY of Taiwan -- 2000-; SOCIAL history
- Publication
Population & Development Review, 2014, Vol 40, Issue 2, p331
- ISSN
0098-7921
- Publication type
Article
- DOI
10.1111/j.1728-4457.2014.00676.x